USDJPY is historically quite sensitive to US data and today’s September US jobs report is the key event of the week that could further aggravate the rise in yields if it is a strong report (note that we also focus on whether earnings are surging as well) and support a break out here that sets USDJPY on the path to the next major resistance level into 114.50+.Ĭrude oil (OILUKDEC21 & OILUSNOV21) witnessed another rollercoaster day on Thursday with early weakness in response to lower gas prices being reversed after the US Energy Department said it has no plan to tap into its strategic reserves “at this time”. USDJPY – is perched close to cycle highs again as US treasury yields broke higher yesterday, together with rising oil prices, two factors that are JPY-negative. Will the slide slow as the big round 1.1500 level rolls into view? Hard to say, but the next level lower that could determine whether the pair faces a full capitulation back to the pandemic outbreak era lows is the 1.1290 level, the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 2020 lows to early 2021 highs. On the positive side, the Caixin China PMI Services figures hit 53.4 in September against 49.2 expected and up from 46.7 in August suggesting that the zero Covid policy quickly got the outbreaks under control allowing the services sector to jump back quickly.ĮURUSD – the EURUSD continues to trade very heavily and will likely continue to do so if US data is supports further rises in US treasury yields. According to statistics the 100 largest real estate developers saw sales plunge 36% in September putting extra pressure on liquidity in Q4. The CSI 300 futures are up 1.5% and Hang Seng futures briefly touched the 25,000 level before retreating lower again but up for the session.

Hang Seng (HSI.I) - Chinese equities are pushing higher with mainland investors back from holiday. That index hasn’t managed to trade above its 21-day moving average (currently near 15,050) since mid-September, while the S&P 500 index is trading on its 21-day moving average near 4390 after attempting to surge above it yesterday. Strong data could ironically prove negative for equities if the reaction sees yields moving aggressively higher, especially for more yield-sensitive tech- and momentum stocks in the concentrated Nasdaq 100 index. Nasdaq 100 (USNAS100.I) and S&P 500 (US500.I) - sentiment in equities was strong yesterday until it was capped by a resurgence in oil prices and a breakout in longer US treasury yields to new cycle highs ahead of today’s September jobs report.

What is 0.15% of 100